The latest Chinese oncology medical market analysis report in 2015

Tumor is the body in a variety of carcinogenic factors, the local tissue of a cell at the gene level to lose the normal regulation of its growth, leading to its clonal abnormal hyperplasia and the formation of lesions, generally divided into benign and malignant two categories.

The 2015 China Cancer Registration Annual Report released by the National Cancer Registration Center shows that there were 3.372 million new cancer cases in my country in 2011, and the cancer death rate was the 2.213 million. The national malignant tumor incidence rate was 250.28/100000 (male 277.77/100000, female 221.37/100000), and the winning rate was 186.34/100000. That's 6.4 people get cancer every minute.

In recent years, with the aging of my country's population, environmental pollution caused by industrialization, and changes in living habits caused by factors such as urbanization, the tumor prevalence and mortality of Chinese residents have increased significantly. At present, malignant tumors have surpassed cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases., Become the number one killer of Chinese residents, accounting for more than 25% of deaths in my country.

From the perspective of tumor classification, lung cancer, breast cancer and gastric cancer are still the most common malignant tumors in China. Among them, lung cancer is the first cause of disease and death, while breast cancer ranks first among female malignant tumors.

Tumor medical service market capacity of more than 100 billion

Statistics on the hospitalization expenses of cancer patients show that the average hospitalization expenses of cancer patients in 2010 was 22718 yuan, of which the cost of drugs was 11718 yuan, accounting for 52.12.

We consider the market space in terms of both the drug share and the patient base:

According to IMS data, sales of antineoplastic drugs exceeded $70 billion in 2012. The sales scale of domestic antineoplastic drugs has been growing steadily in recent years, reaching 58.74 billion yuan in 2011. According to the past compound growth rate, the market is expected to be about 86 billion yuan in 2015. According to the drug revenue, it is generally calculated at 30%-40% of the total hospital revenue, and the market scale of oncology medical services is about 2150-286.6 billion yuan.

However, from the perspective of patient base, if the number of new tumors in China is 300-4 million per year, the average hospitalization cost of patients is 24018 yuan. Considering that patients are not only hospitalized once during treatment, the overall cost is about 6-80000. If the cost during maintenance treatment is considered again, the conservative estimate of cancer treatment cost is about 100000. The overall oncology medical market capacity has reached about 3000-400 billion.

The oncology medical service process is long, the value of the industrial chain is high, and the hospital is the core.

1, cancer hospital in a strong position in the industrial chain

China's medical and health industry chain is long, according to the upstream and downstream relationship is divided into pharmaceutical enterprises, hospitals, OTC terminals and patients. Among them, pharmaceutical pharmaceutical enterprises are in a market-oriented environment, competition is relatively full, and about 80% of the pharmaceutical consumption of hospital terminals in a strong non-market position, the upstream and downstream two-way monopoly, master the upstream and downstream bargaining power.

2, the value of the tumor treatment industry chain is high.

The value generated by the supply chain of oncology medical services is very high, which is mainly reflected in two aspects: one is its high pharmaceutical consumption value. Among the 30 major diseases in my country counted by the China Health and Family Planning Commission in 2014, The consumption of drugs for gastric cancer, lung cancer and other tumor diseases is generally higher than other diseases, and the average drug cost is more than 5000; the second is that its hospital medical equipment is expensive, A well-developed tumor hospital needs to be equipped with equipment worth more than 10 million yuan, and it needs radiotherapy accelerator, head gamma knife system, body gamma knife system, PET -CT, MRI and other radiotherapy and imaging diagnostic equipment.

In 2012, the cost of drugs for tumor diseases was generally higher than that for other diseases.

The characteristics of the treatment of tumor diseases determine that specialization is the future trend. First of all, the comprehensive treatment model of tumor is complex, and it is often a combination of multiple treatment methods (surgical treatment, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, biological therapy, gene therapy, physical therapy, etc.). The requirements for medical talents and diagnosis and treatment equipment are very high.

Secondly, in terms of department settings, the design of the business department will be divided into different units according to different treatment methods, such as tumor surgery, tumor internal medicine, tumor chemotherapy, tumor radiotherapy, biotherapy, hyperthermia and so on. Such a setting further specialization of Junior College technology, while at the same time serving the implementation of the principles of comprehensive treatment of tumors. This kind of refined division and treatment has improved the quality of service, and the tumor Junior College hospital will be the basic model for the expansion of oncology in the future. At the same time, it is also a high barrier system for cancer Junior College hospitals.

Comprehensive Treatment Mode and Equipment Demand in Tumor Junior College Hospital

Current situation of oncology medical service market-the total number of oncology Junior College hospitals is relatively small, and public hospitals are strong. According to the National Health Statistics Yearbook, there were 15021 general hospitals and 4665 Junior College hospitals in 2012, of which 124 were oncology hospitals, accounting for 2.6 percent of Junior College hospitals. The number of tumor Junior College hospitals is far lower than that of oral, ophthalmology, obstetrics and gynecology, orthopedics and rehabilitation hospitals. There are 81 public hospitals in 124 Junior College cancer hospitals, accounting for 64.28 percent, and the proportion of public hospitals is also higher than that of other Junior College hospitals.

The total amount of market theory is about 300 billion, while the total income of 124 Junior College oncology hospitals is only 35.47 billion. Even if the income of oncology departments of other general hospitals is considered, there is still several times more room for improvement. The proportion of private hospitals in tumor Junior College hospitals is about 30%, then the total market theory of private hospitals can reach 100 billion, while the current total income of private hospitals is about more than 10 billion, and there is still 10 times the space.

From 2008 to 2012, the number of outpatients in cancer Junior College hospitals increased from 5.54 million to 11.6 million, a compound increase of 15.9 percent. At the same time, the total number of oncology beds in medical institutions increased from 89810 to 152850, a compound increase of 11.2 percent. The number of patients increased faster than the number of beds. There are about 3 million new cases of cancer in China every year. It is conservatively estimated that the annual stock of patients is 15 million, and there is one bed for every 98 patients. And from the perspective of bed utilization rate, the bed utilization rate of cancer hospitals is more than 100 percent, which is the highest among all Junior College hospitals, indicating that China is facing the problem of insufficient total resources of cancer medical services for a long period of time.

Public proportion of various types of Junior College hospitals

The distribution of hospital beds shows two levels of differentiation, with 44 (mainly public hospitals) with more than 500 beds, and most of them are less than 300 (mainly private hospitals). However, the number of medium-sized hospitals with 300-500 beds is the least.

If we consider all the subjects providing cancer treatment services in the market, the cancer medical service institutions in China can be roughly divided into several categories: public Junior College cancer hospitals, general hospital oncology departments, and private Junior College cancer hospitals. The current situation of tumor hospitals can be summarized as "the total amount is less, the public is strong, and the two-level differentiation".

The top cancer hospitals in China are almost all public Junior College cancer hospitals, followed by general hospitals. Concentrated in big cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, the team of doctors is strong, the number of outpatients and operations is high, and the regional influence is strong.

These hospitals have gathered the largest number of difficult tumor cases in China, put into the most clinical practice, accumulated the richest data, and represented the highest level of tumor treatment in China. Some provincial tumor Junior College hospitals have also undertaken the largest number of tumor treatment tasks in the region. For example, the proportion of foreign patients in Tianjin Cancer Hospital reached 40%.

However, these hospitals often have the phenomenon of "overcrowding and hard to find a bed". For example, Tianjin Cancer Hospital has opened a branch in Hedong District of Tianjin and rebuilt outpatient and inpatient buildings in the original hospital area. At present, it has more than 2000 beds in the city, but it still can not meet the demand.

Although these hospitals have the most resources, there are still restrictions on expansion. First, with the advancement of urbanization, land restrictions and high costs, the expansion of their own volume is difficult; second, the national policy level requires strict control of public hospitals. The scale of development, so it can be said that the development of single hospitals will inevitably encounter a ceiling.

The oncology departments of provincial, municipal, prefecture-level and county-level general hospitals are the backbone of oncology medical services, but as a department of the hospital, their development is subject to the overall development speed of the hospital, and at the same time, they only rely on themselves to train the echelon of doctors. there is still a gap between the technology and quality of medical services and large-scale public Junior College cancer hospitals.

Private cancer hospitals are an effective supplement to public medical resources, but the proportion of the current number is still small. Although the profitability of some cancer hospitals is good, they also face embarrassment: on the one hand, they need to compete with public cancer hospitals and oncology departments of general hospitals in the region, on the other hand, the amount of funds needed for expansion is large, and it is difficult to obtain doctor resources. there are certain difficulties in brand building and scale expansion.

Ranking of National Cancer Hospitals

Docking excellent resources and vigorously developing tumor Junior College medical treatment Under the guidance of the policy trend of national graded diagnosis and treatment and enhancing the capacity of primary medical services, it is an inevitable trend for tumor treatment resources to gradually sink in the future. Considering the current situation of China's oncology medical service market, on the one hand, large public Junior College hospitals hold the highest level of technology and doctor resources in the whole system, on the other hand, the oncology departments of lower-level hospitals and private Junior College oncology hospitals are slightly thin. Therefore, we believe that promoting the sinking of high-quality resources, expanding the radiation range of high-quality resources, and vigorously developing cancer Junior College medical institutions have become the only countermeasure to alleviate the shortage of high-quality resources.

At present, there are several ways to expand the standards and standardized diagnosis and treatment of excellent tumor Junior College treatment to achieve effective docking of resources:

One is the medical consortium model, which promotes consultation and referral cooperation between hospitals within a certain region or system. For example, the Peking University Cancer Hospital will cooperate with Peking University Medical Industry Group and medical institutions affiliated to the joint venture in consultation, referral, etc. Patients in subordinate medical institutions can enjoy priority in remote consultation and referral to Peking University Cancer Hospital.

The second is through joint-stock cooperation, new construction, acquisition, the formation of chain, brand cancer Junior College treatment institutions, such as "Peking University Cancer Hospital" and founder Group cooperation, in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region with strong brand radiation, through cooperative hospitals, new hospitals or acquisition of hospitals, unified naming, chain to carry out cancer medical business.

The third is the trusteeship mode. For example, Hunan Cancer Hospital has set up a leading group for hospital cooperation with foreign countries, focusing on the province, and has begun to export high-quality medical services to tumor prevention and control outlets in the region through joint-stock cooperation, trusteeship, counterpart support, etc. The first batch will host Yongzhou Xiangnan Cancer Hospital, and later will host Chenzhou, Changde and Huaihua hospitals.

The medical consortium model can improve the efficiency of patient visits and the rational allocation of resources between hospitals, but after all, there are no new resources and the structure is loose. The trusteeship model basically does not change the property rights relationship of the hospital, but only gives support to the trusteeship hospital in terms of technology, management and brand, and charges a certain amount of trusteeship fees. The above two models do not involve the cooperation of property rights and have limited control of resources. Therefore, we believe that the way of joint-stock cooperation, new construction and acquisition may be the main way of short-term capital intervention.

(This information comes from the small orange light network)